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USD How To Anticipate The NFP Today - October 5, 2012


In yesterday's trading, USD again get a great blow from the opponent's main pair. EUR / USD shot up by 116 pips while USD / CHF plunged by 82 pips.
The main opponent USD pair is already showing signs of going to skyrocket in the london session, when the BOE and ECB rate decisions revealed that the central banks are not adding to their stimulus efforts this month.
Then followed a weaker-than-expected the data from the U.S. that pushed the dollar selloff in the U.S. session. The Challenger jobs report Showed that the US-based companies are planning to cut 33.816 jobs in September, up 4.9% from August's figure 32.229.
Meanwhile, the initial jobless claims rose to 367,000 from last week's 363,000 figure. Even the factory orders report, disappointed with a 5.2% Decrease from last month's 2.8%. Last but not the least, the Fed's FOMC minutes Showed the central bank's focus on the weak jobs report and its willingness to cough up more stimulus if needed.
To this day all the attention to the NFP release, this report will examine whether the FED's able to provide more stimulus.
Many rumors are circulating that the market players are predicting that the unemployment rate will rise from 8.1% to 8.2%. Furthermore, they are also expecting payrolls figures showed 115,000 for September, up from the 96.000 we saw in August.
However, we can not ignore other employment reports hinting that we might receive a worse-than-expected result in tomorrow's release. First, the employment index of the ISM non-manufacturing surveys dropped from 53.8 to 51.1. This is Considered to be the strongest leading indicator of non-farm payrolls.
Second, while the ADP report did print better than expected at 162,000, it was a lot less than the downwardly revised 189,000 figure we saw for August. Remember that while the ADP report failed to predict the drastic drop in payrolls from July to August, it has been pretty accurate in determining the direction of the labor market.

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